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Article Index"Even though he never officially led in the pre-election polls, the signal communicated to voters through the press was that Ventura was in a position possibly to win," the authors explained. "In the close three-way race this significantly reduced the incentives to vote strategically. Third party candidates face a perpetual problem of losing their supporters to strategic voting: third party voters often defect to their second most preferred candidate in order to avoid electing their least preferred candidate. With his momentum in the polls and eventual victory, Ventura overcame the usual trend."
The timing of the newspaper report was extremely beneficial for Ventura because Minnesota is one of the few states that allow citizens to register to vote on Election Day, making it possible for those who decided to support him — even at that late stage of the campaign — to cast ballo. Ventura's rising poll numbers also made it likely he would qualify for public funds — but not until after Election Day. So he took out a loan, used it for late advertising and paid it back after the election.
The scenario in New Jersey this fall will be much different, but one element of Lacy and Monson's findings may have implications in the Garden State, where Democrats hope to nationalize the election and benefit from President Obama's popularity, while Republicans contend that state issues will determine the outcome. The study found that voter attitudes on the condition of the nation had no effect on Ventura's support. Conversely, the condition of the state played a more significant role.
"Ventura's electoral success was due to dissatisfaction with Minnesota government rather than a reaction to national conditions," Lacy and Monson wrote. "People who believe Minnesota is on the right track are more likely to vote for the major-party candidates than for Ventura."
These research studies provide a good starting point for discussion of New Jersey's race for governor. At the end of the day, however, every election is unique with its own set of candidates and circumstances. How Chris Daggett and the other candidates fare in New Jersey in 2009 will be determined by the distinctive factors in place in our state this year.
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Listen to my interview with Chris Daggett on BlogTalk Radio: Play Podcast
Richard A. Lee is Communications Director of the Hall Institute of Public Policy - New Jersey. A former journalist and Deputy Communications Director for New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey, he also teaches courses in media and government at Rutgers University, where he is completing work on a Ph.D. in media studies.
