newjerseynewsroom.com

BY JOSH McMAHON

COMMENTARY

It comes as no surprise that the public's expectations of what Gov. Chris Christie can do is out of whack with reality.

In fact, those expectations seem to be out of whack with themselves.

Taxpayers are adamant in their demand that he do something to control property taxes and yet less than half think he can succeed.

Nearly everybody sees a need for reduced state spending but significant numbers don't want him to touch education or programs for the poor. Those are two of the highest spending areas in the state budget.

How do you reduce spending by giving those programs a pass?

All this, by the way, is according to the latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll, conducted just a week or so after Christie took office.

What the poll underscores is just how tough it is to run a state and remain popular. It's flat out impossible to meet the public's prospects.

As Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth polling institute, put it, the new governor is expected to "defy expectations."

There's no doubt that Christie has signaled a new day has arrived. Clearly, he's ready to force a morbid bureaucracy to conduct a self-examination and find cures for what ails it. That process has begun.

But even he can only do so much. Christie's election represented a call by the public for change and he's going to give it to them. The question is whether it will be enough.

And that brings us back to those poll results.

Let's get to the issue that dominates New Jersey politics — property taxes.

Those surveyed were nearly unanimous with 89 percent saying they would not be happy if property taxes remained high during Christie's term. That breaks down to 71 percent who would be "very" upset and another 18 percent who would be "somewhat" upset if things didn't change.

Still, only 42 percent think it's likely that the state will take steps to "significantly" lower property taxes in the next few years while 56 percent don't believe that's likely at all.

So, almost nine out of 10 want Christie to at least nudge property taxes from their high perch — the highest in the nation — but nearly six in 10 don't think it's going to happen.

That seems to be a contradiction but what it may mean is that homeowners are counting in Christie to give it his best, although they don't have much confidence that he can he can halt the property tax balloon's ascent.

In a way, the poll results show that voters are pretty savvy about government and politics. They want lower tax bills but realize the system — dominated by camps populated with coalitions of special interests — makes that nearly impossible. They don't like it but they acknowledge the reality.

Then again, the poll may show that the public wants Christie to alter political reality and if he doesn't, he's a goner.

For starters, there's not much the governor or legislature can do to immediately affect property taxes. It's one of the reasons lawmakers try to stay away from property taxes. There's no way for them to win.

Those tax bills are a combination of expenses racked up by the local schools, the town and the county. The state has nothing to do with it.

Now the state can ease the need for more taxes by providing more funding. But with New Jersey's balance sheet a bright red, Trenton simply doesn't have the extra bucks to hand out.

Christie and the legislature can impose tighter budget caps on municipalities and that's likely to happen. Towns already operate under a 4 percent budget ceiling but it's so flexible that few homeowners are aware it exists.

Indeed, last fall more than 80 percent of those questioned thought that imposing a local budget cap was a good idea.

But would a cap be enough? Christie has talked about imposing a real cap on towns. That's something he and the lawmakers can do but if that limit for all local spending is set at say 4 percent, that means a homeowner paying $10,000 in taxes will see a $400 increase. That's not exactly a significant drop.

Aside from property taxes, those surveyed want him to cut state spending with 85 percent saying they won't be satisfied with Christie if the doesn't deliver.

But they then put him in a fiscal straightjacket.

Nearly 84 percent would be unhappy if he cut school aid and a nearly equal percentage (87) would be somewhat or very upset if he slashed programs for the poor.

Those are two of the biggest expenses in the budget. It will be hard to devise a credible saving plan without impacting those two. At the very least, he has to hold those expenses even — or almost even. Still, many will view that as a cut.

Beyond that, 55 percent want the state workforce reduced but only 40 percent would be okay with layoffs. That means any state payroll reduction will have to come through attrition or buyouts — something the public won't like.

Finally, slightly more than half the public (54 percent) is confident Christie can rein in state spending.

A plan is developing for a revamping of the pension and health care systems for government workers. That will save money but most of it will be in the future — not much help for now.

Clearly, it's impossible for him to meet all these competing expectations. My guess is that if he delivers on some and takes a shot — a good shot — at doing some of the others — like standing up to the unions and cracking down on excessive spending — the pubic will give him a thumbs up.

And if the economy picks up in the next three years, the voters will re-elect him by acclamation, even if he doesn't meet their initial expectations.

Josh McMahon was a member of The Star-Ledger's editorial board and had served as the paper's political editor.