newjerseynewsroom.com

BY CARL GOLDEN

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

COMMENTARY

It was the late Republican operative Lee Atwater who first described his party as "a big tent," welcoming those of differing opinions on issues but who were united on the core principles of less intrusive government and restrained public spending.

Unsuccessful (twice) Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan seems intent on shrinking the tent, admitting only those who agree with his views and unleashing a steady steam of vitriol at those who feel the party can only succeed in statewide elections if it moves away from Lonegan's far right ideology and closer to the center where the bulk of the state's voters have shown time and again that's where they are.

His latest assault on gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie, as well as on the party's legislative and organization leadership, is another of his attempts to convince Republican voters that the path to victory lies not down the center of the road, but well to its right.

• In the last 40 years, only three Republicans have been elected Governor – Bill Cahill, Tom Kean and Christie Whitman.
• Since the adoption of the 1947 State constitution, only Kean and Whitman – both of whom have been steady targets for Lonegan and his followers – won re-election.

It's not difficult to decipher the pattern here.

This year is perhaps the best chance the Republican Party has had in several years to regain the governor's office. Gov. Jon Corzine has consistently trailed Christie in the polls, even though voter preference data collected this early in the process should be viewed with caution. Corzine also falters badly in virtually every other polling category, from deserving of re-election to performance in office.

Most significantly – at least at this early point – Corzine's support among Democrat voters falls below 70 percent, an astonishing level for an incumbent, and he runs a poor second in every area of the state except the Hudson-Essex-Union corridor.

It's clear the stars are aligned properly for the Republican candidate.

Lonegan's drumbeat of criticism and the implied threat to direct his followers to withhold their support from Christie is shortsighted and smacks of a sore-loser complex.

There are nearly 800,000 fewer registered Republicans than Democrats in New Jersey and the combined party registrations are less than the 2.5 million unaffiliated voters. Despite what appears to be lukewarm support for a Corzine re-election, Democratic regulars will grumble and grouse but, in the end, most will come back to the party of their roots, giving the governor a decided advantage.

If the Lonegan wing boycotts the Christie candidacy, the candidate's task of overcoming the Democrats' registration advantage will be that much tougher. Christie will be forced to make up the difference by peeling off a greater number of unaffiliated voters – the very people who've demonstrated election after election that fringe ideology is unacceptable and their support will be given to the candidate of responsible and more centrist policies.

Democrats, disaffected or not, understand this dynamic very well, indeed. They see the choice in November as between one of their own who, perhaps, they're not fond of, against one of the opposition whom they loathe. Either we win or we lose and ideology be damned; we'll deal with that after the inauguration.

There is no doubt that Lonegan stands for many of the principles which underpin the Republican Party's philosophy, most especially on fiscal matters. He's been an outspoken critic of out of control spending, burgeoning public debt, and steadily rising taxes.

Whatever differences exist between him and others in the party on these issues are matters of degree rather than conviction.

Unfortunately, Lonegan's often overheated rhetoric and thinly-disguised scorn for those with whom he differs have blotted out his message of fiscal responsibility and restraint, creating intra-party divisions and occasionally harsh and bitter reactions from those labeling him a wing nut.

Those few Republicans who've enjoyed electoral success statewide have done so by working diligently toward expanding the party, buying into Atwater's big tent philosophy and its corollary of working to resolve differences after a victory rather than highlighting them and guaranteeing another loss.

Lonegan is in a position to reserve a seat at the Governor's office table for himself and his adherents. By continuing to attack his own party, though, he's consigning himself to the upper deck bleachers.

Carl Golden served as press secretary to Govs. Kean and Whitman.