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Article IndexTensions over taxes hikes and spending cuts already are swelling around some embattled incumbents. Consider:
Arizona: Republican Gov. Jan Brewer is behind in early polls, including against State Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) and former Gov. Fife Symington (R), who resigned in 1997 following a fraud conviction. Brewer, who inherited the job when Janet Napolitano (D) joined Obama's Cabinet, is expected to face a tough GOP primary as she battles her own party to push for a temporary sales tax hike to balance the budget.
Nevada: The worst budget crisis in state history competes for voters' attention with Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons' messy divorce and other personal controversies. The governor could face Brian Sandoval, the first Hispanic federal judge, in a GOP primary. Gibbons' approval rating has plunged to below 15 percent in some polls. Voters may not remember or care that the governor rejected lawmakers'$781 million tax increase, but the Democratic-controlled statehouse overrode his veto. The Democrats' nominee could be Rory Reid, son of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
New York: Democratic Gov. David Paterson trails in polls pitting him in a primary against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who many observers, including the White House, think would be the stronger candidate. Paterson's numbers plummeted earlier this year partly because of his handling of state budget negotiations, which raised taxes and fees by $6 billion, and partly because of his stumbling appointment of a U.S. senator to replace now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Paterson also is facing voters for the governor's job for the first time after taking over when Eliot Spitzer resigned in a sex scandal.
Illinois: Tax hikes are at the center of a nasty debate primarily between Democrats. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) wants to keep the job he inherited in January when he replaced impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), but he first will have to best Comptroller Dan Hynes in the Feb. 2 Democratic primary. Hynes is running TV ads that take aim at Quinn's proposal to hike the income tax from 3 percent to 4.5 percent to bridge what he said was an $11 billion shortfall over 18 months, but the House rejected it.
Quinn, Paterson and Brewer are among five governors on the ballot in 2010 who inherited their jobs when their bosses stepped down for various reasons, including accepting appointments in the Obama administration. The others are Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell and Utah Gov. Gary Herbert, both Republicans.
In 2002, the economy worked against both parties, but Democrats were harder hit as three sitting governors lost their posts.
Alabama then had the closest governor's race in the nation when Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Riley defeated Democratic Gov. Don Siegelman, who had said he would raise business taxes to make up for expected revenue from a lottery proposal rejected by voters. Riley won by running against any tax increase (although he famously went back on that pledge and tried to get voters the next year to accept a tax increase for education, only to be rebuffed.)
In both Georgia and South Carolina, the incumbent governors antagonized voters before the 2002 contest with controversial moves involving the Confederate flag, but tax issues also were prominent. Then-state Sen. Sonny Perdue became the first Republican governor in Georgia since Reconstruction by ousting incumbent Roy Barnes (D) with a promise to abolish income taxes for Georgians over age 62, which did not happen. (Barnes is exploring a run in 2010 to reclaim his old job.) And South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges (D) got the boot when voters opted for Republican Mark Sanford, who proposed phasing out the income tax over 18 years. Sanford, who in 2009 fended off impeachment charges after admitting to an extramarital affair, is term-limited.
In Maryland's open governor's race in 2002 Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Ehrlich defeated Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend by successfully blaming Townsend and the outgoing Democratic governor, Parris Glendening, for the state's $1.7 billion budget shortfall.
But Democrats had their wins in 2002, too, including the taking of three Midwestern states (Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan) that had been under Republican governors for years, including ousting one incumbent. In Wisconsin, Democratic Attorney General Jim Doyle beat Republican Gov. Scott McCallum with ads that declared, "State government is a mess right now, caucus scandals, misuse of state planes, $2.8 billion deficit, rising taxes. This has got to change." Trailing in the polls, Doyle has decided not to seek a third term in 2010.
Democrats in 2002 also retook the Tennessee governorship. Phil Bredesen won, in part by vowing to keep the state free of an income tax. He defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary in the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. Don Sundquist (R). Bredesen kept his promise, and the state still has no income tax. Hilleary's election hopes weren't helped when Sundquist went back on a pledge and tried to enact an income tax, leading to raucous, stone-throwing protests at the capitol. "Every Republican in the state distanced themselves from him (Sundquist) when he floated during his second term the idea of a state income tax. This destroyed whatever future he had politically," said Anthony J. Nownes, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee.
Once again, anti-tax advocates vow to make tax hikes a litmus test in 2010 governor's races. "In 2002 and 1994, people didn't turn out all incumbents; they turned out incumbents who raised taxes," said Grover Norquist, founder of the Americans for Tax Reform and major advocate for limited government.
California, in a league of its own for fiscal dysfunction, has experienced what can happen when voters revolt. While California voters re-elected Gov. Gray Davis (D) in 2002, they ousted him less than a year later in an unprecedented statewide recall election. A tripling of the car tax and Davis's handling of spiraling budget deficits were partly to blame.
Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who replaced Davis as governor in 2003, is barred from running for another term, but pundits say that displeasure over California's historic budget deficits and his low approval ratings could help return the governor's seat to the Democrats. California Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) is leading in polls against several Republican candidates-including former eBay Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman-in the race to succeed Schwarzenegger, putting Brown in a position to reclaim the job he held from 1975-1983.
But raising taxes is not always the kiss of death in politics. Democrat Mark Warner raised sales and cigarette taxes as Virginia's governor from 2002-2006 and campaigned for two regional sales tax increases to fund transportation that voters rejected. Warner's popularity helped elevate his lieutenant governor, Tim Kaine, as his successor. (Virginia is the only state that limits its governors to one term.) Warner now represents Virginia in the U.S. Senate. In the other governor's race in 2009 besides New Jersey, Republican Bob McDonnell won back Virginia.
