newjerseynewsroom.com

BY MIKE VORKUNOV

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

For the better part of two weeks now south Florida has become the epicenter of the sports universe, with it being the home of a cloying amount of Super Bowl talk. But in what seems like a perfectly made natural segue South Florida has become the talk of the Big East.

Only a two weeks ago I wrote a piece breaking down the NCAA Tournament chances for each Big East team and making my predictions. There is no bigger ego trip for a writer than to make predictions in public and actually have them play out. Of course, that wasn't the case.

As the past two weeks have proven, that span of time can change a season in college basketball. Again look no further than South Florida.

As of the end of January they were done. The Chicago Bulls had a better chance of partaking in March Madness than these Bulls (insert Derrick Rose eligibility joke here, there's plenty of them).

Now? I'm not saying USF is getting in, but do you really want to bet against them? They upset Pittsburgh at home, won at Georgetown and went from never having won back-to-back Big East games to winning four in a row. They also set off what seems like the Butterfly Effect of the Big East. So let's take a look.

This time instead of predicting whether the team will get in, I'm going to use percentages. Gives a little more leeway for this writer. As like last time, RPI is courtesy of RealtimeRPI.com.

South Florida (15-8, 5-6)

The Bulls beat Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, at Georgetown and then took a tough loss at home at Notre Dame. The win in D.C. is beyond huge, giving them a road win against a top-10 team. Those types of wins are worth about double come selection time.

Now for the rest of the season. Out of their seven remaining games, six are winnable ones with a trip to Villanova seemingly out of reach. That means an 11-7 conference record, but that probably won't happen. More likely is at least four wins in that seven game stretch, five if they can take one from Cincinnati or Connecticut when both visit the Sun Dome.

If they do win five games, that leaves them with a 10-8 Big East record, and 20 wins on the season overall. As of right now they have an RPI of 50 but rank 28th in strength of schedule. That puts them right on the bubble with one marquee win, but no other extremely distinguishable one as Pittsburgh has dropped. That means they would probably need to win one game at the Garden if they end up as the No. 8 seed.

Chances of Dancing: 55%.

Pittsburgh (18-6, 7-4)

As of right now the Panthers' and USF's seasons are intertwined. Pitt got off to a great start in-conference and looked like a top five seed lock, while USF struggled. But when Pitt started to gain water, its slide was stamped with an exclamation point to the Bulls.

As of right now the Panthers' situation looks hazy. Their RPI is 18 and their SOS is 15. Their lone exemplary win is at Syracuse (although that could be the win of the year for any team), but other than that there is little else that says they should be higher than a seven seed.

Doing a little projecting, the Panthers should finish 11-7 with 22 wins overall. That should definitely get them into the Dance, but with a lower seed than they would have hoped for two weeks ago.

Chances of Dancing: 100%, No. 7 seed

Georgetown (18-5, 8-4)

How about those Hoyas? Can't have a better two weeks than they just had with wins over Duke and Villanova. The loss to South Florida won't hurt them in the context of those wins. They went from a fringe three seed to No. 2 seed. They have the seventh best RPI and the toughest schedule in the land. And if Villanova struggles then Georgetown would seem to have the inside track to the fourth No. 1 spot.

As Seth Davis wrote earlier this week, the Hoyas' success this season has been driven by addition by subtraction. It was no big secret that they were going to be better with DaJuan Summers and Jesse Sapp elsewhere this year, but no one thought this good. Who says chemistry is overrated.

Chances of Dancing: 100%, No. 2 seed

Seton Hall (12-9, 3-7)

Ah, those Pirates. Always in the fray somehow. Their loss at South Florida made everyone think twice about South Florida. Then the loss at Pittsburgh cemented their midseason collapse, but provided comfort for the Panthers.

As of right now, the Hall is not a Tournament team. In fact they are nowhere close. They are a team with no identity right now. Their best scorer Jeremy Hazell is in coach Bobby Gonzalez's doghouse. More importantly, he is reacting like an immature child sent to his room if you take his play at Pittsburgh as evidence. Two points in 32 minutes is the equivalent of stomping your feet and pouting all the way up the stairs.

According to the NIT Bracket Project (as tweeted by Brendan Prunty), Seton Hall is a four seed right now. They are not in Joe Lunardi's first eight teams out of the tournament, so they're looking at a tough climb. And while they rank 9th in SOS, they are 64th in RPI.

To get back on the bubble they'll have to get to 10 wins in the Big East, which means winning seven out of their final eight games. That's certainly not a stretch as their schedule just went from an obstacle course to a downhill run. But that's also pressure. Even if they get to ten wins, they're going to need two wins in the Big East Tournament, at least.

Chances of Dancing: 40%

Connecticut (14-9, 4-6)

It's been a tough year for the Huskies. The plight of the team on the court, Jim Calhoun's health issues, and the fact that despite their troubles already the toughest part of their schedule is still to come. In their next five games, they'll have to go to Syracuse and Villanova and host West Virginia. Throw in three more road games and visits from Cincinnati and Louisville. That for a team 0-5 on the road that needs to sweep their home games.

They may have the seventh toughest schedule in the nation, but the 57th ranked RPI won't cut it. And with their remaining schedule can you really see Connecticut getting to ten wins in the conference?

Chances of Dancing: 25%

Marquette (15-8, 6-5)

Here is your Big East wildcard. The Golden Eagles are just about a toss-up the rest of the way. All seven of their remaining games are winnable, but not guaranteed. They've played the Big East's beasts tough so far but lost. So do you want to predict what they'll do from here on out?

Their resume is iffy at this point with RPI and SOS ranking of 60 and 50, respectively. But if they go 5-2 the rest of the way, which is certainly possible with USF, Pitt, Louisville and Notre Dame visiting and trips to Cincinnati, St. John's and Seton Hall.

But considering the way their season has gone so far a 3-4 record is more likely. Considering their tangibles so far the Eagles will need to get to 11 wins in-conference, and probably a win in the Big East Tournament. But I'm not going on record prognosticating that, no matter how much free cheese I may receive from Wisconsinites.

Chances of Dancing: 50%

Louisville (15-8, 6-4) and Notre Dame (17-7, 6-5)

Let's group these two teams together. They have about the same resume right now, with no big wins for the Cardinals and only a home upset over West Virginia as a point of emphasis for Notre Dame. Louisville has the better statistical backup, with an RPI of 43 and SOS of 6, while ND is 59th for both.

But here is where their seasons turn. The Irish's seemingly impossible game the rest of the way is at Georgetown. The Cardinals still have a home and home with Syracuse and host Georgetown. Not to mention, a trip to Connecticut, who is 14-2 at home.

I have a hunch only one of these two is going to make the Tournament and it may come down to who wins when they meet at Freedom Hall on February 17. But I would give Notre Dame the better chance of lasting till mid-March.

Chances of Dancing for Louisville: 45%

Chances of Dancing for Notre Dame: 63%

Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6)

How's this for a gauntlet, to finish their season the Bearcats will play their final three games at West Virginia, hosting Villanova and at Georgetown. Ouch. That's going to leave a scar. Cincinnati will have to present their resume to the Selection Committee with a Band-Aid on it.

Unless they come up with an upset, which is looking like a bleaker possibility every day, that already makes nine losses in the Big East. The Bearcats also have to go to Connecticut and South Florida back-to-back, neither of which is as fun as eating a cup of Skyline Chili.

It's a good thing that Cincinnati has early season victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland because they'll need to milk them for all they are worth.

Chances of Dancing: 38%

Don't agree with Mike's math? Say something about it. Email Mike Vorkunov at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or find him on Twitter.