newjerseynewsroom.com

Poll finds Daggett's lost support vaulted Republican to victory

BY TOM HESTER SR.

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

As Gov.-elect Chris Christie prepares to take office Tuesday, new poll made public Monday finds New Jerseyans want him to make cutting taxes and government spending his priority.

The Monmouth University Polling Institute asked a panel of people who voted in the Nov. 3 election about the first thing they want the new Republican governor to do. The results show that taxes and spending head the list of expectations.

Among all voters on the panel, about 1-in-4 or 23 percent named cutting taxes as the first issue Christie needs to address, with about one third of that group specifying property taxes as the main problem. Another one-in-five or 20 percent say that state spending needs to be reined in. Other prime targets for the new administration are spurring job growth in the state, 10 percent, dealing with unionized state worker and teacher pay and benefits, 8 percent, and fixing corruption in government, 7 percent.

"Rudy Giuliani famously noted that he ran for mayor of New York on a platform of fighting crime and knew that regardless of what other accomplishments he may have in his first term, he would not be re-elected unless voters saw crime improve," Patrick Murray, the survey's director, said. "Chris Christie appears to have a two-fold acid test with New Jersey voters. He has to cut both taxes and spending. That's a tall order when times are good. It'll be an exceptionally formidable task in the current economic climate."

Murray added, "It may be possible that Christie's own supporters will stick with him if he doesn't make much progress on the tax issue, as long as he reduces the size of government. It's important to remember, though, that Christie's victory was due largely to voter frustration with the past few administrations. A job adequately done may not be enough. It is likely that Christie will have to win over some of his opponents' supporters if he expects to be re-elected in 2013. And that probably means cutting taxes, especially property taxes."

The survey also asked voters to name the one negative thing they are most worried will happen in New Jersey government under a Christie administration. Murray said that among Christie's own supporters a key concern is that taxes will remain high, or perhaps go even higher. The other major concern among voters who put Christie into office is that his administration will get absorbed by "the Trenton blob" despite good intentions. Others worry Christie's efforts will be stymied by partisanship.

Voters who supported Corzine or one of the independent candidates share the fears of Christie voters that taxes will remain high or go even higher during the next four years. But they are also concerned that potential cuts in spending that could negatively affect education, urban areas, and other programs.

Murray said, "Whether they supported him in November or not, New Jersey voters are worried that Chris Christie may not be able to do much in the end to ease the state's tax burden. It's also clear that independent voters, who were crucial to his electoral success, expect to see real change in how fiscal decisions are made in New Jersey. Chris Christie finds himself in an interesting position. The public is skeptical that real change is obtainable. Yet, the new governor will be judged on whether he can affect that change."

During the campaign for governor, the Monmouth Polling Institute tracked the opinions of a panel of 999 New Jersey voters. In the weeks following Christie's victory over Gov. Jon Corzine, pollsters re-contacted 481 of those voters to get their reactions to the result and their expectations for the new administration.

Just as the final vote tally was divided — 48.5 percent for Christie to 44.9 percent for Corzine, with 5.8 percent for Independent Chris Daggett — so too was the electorate's reaction. Voters in the poll's online panel were asked to enter the one word that described their feelings about the outcome of this election.

The top words were "disappointed," "hopeful," and "relieved." As may be expected, those who did not support Christie's candidacy were disappointed, while Christie voters divided their reactions between hope and relief.

The choice of words reveals some interesting aspects about the mood of the electorate and has implications for how the public will greet the incoming Christie administration, according to pollsters.

"While many Corzine supporters were disappointed over his loss, few used more emotional terms like disgust or dismay,'' Murray said. "Most seemed resigned to the fact that New Jersey was going to have a change in government. On the other hand, only a small number of Christie voters said they were actually elated by the outcome. Instead, the hope and relief expressed by these voters seems more indicative of a weary electorate who feel Christie's victory is just the first step in getting New Jersey back on the right track."

Murray added, "Christie's supporters may not expect political miracles in the first year of his term, but they do insist on seeing progress in a few key areas."