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Poll finds Newark mayor a viable candidate for governor of New Jersey

In what could be consider another round of fantasy New Jersey politics, Public Policy Polling Thursday issued the results of its third poll in three days, the latest finding that a gubernatorial campaign between Gov. Chris Christie and Newark Mayor Cory Booker would begin in a tie.

Christie, a Republican, is finishing the first year of his initial four-year term and has not spoken of seeking a second term in 2013. He is also a darling of the national GOP and there has been talk of him seeking the presidency at some point. Booker, a Democrat, has not spoken of seeking the governor's office.

Although much of the focus on Christie's political future has been on a presidential bid, the poll finds he's a long way from being able to take even a second term as governor for granted, particularly if Booker were to challenge him. Booker is surprisingly popular across the state with 46 percent of voters viewing him favorably to only 16 percent with a negative opinion. The list of politicians in the U.S. with nearly 3:1 favorability ratings these days is pretty short.

What's most striking within the figures on Booker, the poll finds, is how well liked he is across party lines. Although he is most popular with Democrats at a 51 percent to 12 percent favorability, he also has a 47 percent to 17 percent spread with independents, and even a 36 percent to 21 percent with Republicans. There are not many Democratic officials who Republicans like right now, especially in a state as polarized as New Jersey.

In a hypothetical contest between Booker and Christie the two tie at 42 percent each. The numbers are actually misleadingly good for Christie though. 21 percent of Democrats are undecided in such a match up while only 7 percent of Republicans are. That's probably a reflection of 38 percent of voters in the state still not having an opinion about Booker. More likely than not most of those undecided Democrats would end up in Booker's camp if this match up ever did become a reality.

That a popular Democrat like Booker would probably defeat Christie if there was an election today shouldn't come as any real surprise. Christie's election was never about his being unusually popular- it was about Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine being unusually unpopular and even with his disapproval rating hovering up near 60 percent Christie could still only muster a 4 point victory in 2009.

While Christie's approval numbers are pretty good for a Republican in New Jersey, it's clear that Booker's appeal goes well beyond the boundaries of Newark and he will be a formidable candidate for some future political office if he decides he wants to move up.

On Tuesday, Public Policy Polling released a poll that found President Obama would beat Christie and other potential Republican candidates in New Jersey in a presidential race. On Wednesday, the polling agency found U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) would defeat any Republican opponent in a Senate race.

The latest poll also finds it's clear that Christie's handling of the post-Christmas snowstorm has not and is not likely to do him any long term political damage. New Jerseyans are pretty evenly divided on his leadership regarding the storm — 43 percent approve and 44 percent disapprove — residents would have to be much more universal in their unhappiness with Christie for the snowstorm vacation to have a real impact on his overall political standing. The numbers mostly reflect people who already like him saying he did a good job and those who already dislike him saying he did a bad job.

Focusing in more specifically on the question of whether he should have abandoned his vacation to deal with the storm, 49 percent of new Jerseyans say Christie was right to stay at Disney World in Florida to just 39 percent who think he should have come back.

— TOM HESTER SR., NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM