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Less than 30 percent of voters, an historic low, expected to turn out on Election Day

BY TOM HESTER SR.

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

Here is how confident the Democrats are that they will retain control of the Legislature after all the votes are counted in the Assembly and Senate elections Tuesday night: Assembly Speaker Sheila Y. Oliver (D-Essex) has scheduled a Democratic caucus for Thursday to select the majority leadership team for the 2012-13 legislative session.

For New Jersey political junkies, the caucus and not the election of 120 legislators, is where the real the action will be. Oliver moved quickly to call the caucus, at least in part, so as not to give Assembly Majority Leader Joseph Cryan (D-Union) any more time to prepare his expected challenge.

Oliver is seeking a second term as Assembly Speaker and has bumped Cryan from her learership ticket in favor of Assemblyman Lou Greenwald (D-Camden) and is proposing Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Middlesex) as deputy speaker. Assemblyman Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson) would become lower house Budget Committee chairman.

Cryan and a number of other Assembly Democrats are angry that Oliver joined Gov. Chris Christie and Senate President Stephen M. Sweeney (D-Gloucester) in pushing through legislation that raised the cost of health and pension benefits for state and local public employees, a loyal Democratic voting block.

“I look forward to gathering our new caucus together for the first time and presenting them with a team that will tirelessly work together to advocate for the values so important to working class New Jerseyans,” Oliver said Monday. “This is a team that will reflect our state’s great diversity and talent and will bring everyone together to ensure our middle-class and working poor are given a more affordable place to live and work.”

As for Election Day, Tuesday, the polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. but Monmouth University Poll Director Patrick Murray foresees the turnout to decide legislative, county and local positions falling below 30 percent for the first time since records have been kept.

He notes that so many seats are considered a lock that many of the incumbents did not” even demonstrate a minimal level of respect for voters by answering the media’s candidate questionnaires.”

The Democrats control the Assembly 47 to 33 and the Senate 24 to 16 and the ratio is is not expected to change by more than one or two seats, if that. In their wildest dreams, the Republicans believe they have a shot at three Senate and two Assembly seats while the Democrats hope to pull off one to three upsets in the reshaped 16th District in Somerset, Middlesex and Hunterdon counties.

Wisniewski is attempting strong get-out-the-vote effort in 10 legislative districts and Christie or Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno Monday campaigned for Republican candidates in Passaic, Middlesex, Bergen, Essex and Mercer counties.

“November 8th is when we tell Chris Christie and the Republicans that march in lockstep with him that their radical agenda is just plain wrong for New Jersey,” Wisniewski is telling Democratic activists. “The only way to stop Christie's agenda is by making sure our great Democratic legislators and candidates are in Trenton to stand up to the governor for the next two years.”

In the 38th District in Bergen County, the Democrats are scrambling to protect Sen. Bob Gordon from a strong challenge by Republican Freeholder Director John Driscoll, who is getting campaign support from Christie.

In the 2nd District in Atlantic County, the Republicans have been spending a lot of money in TV ads in an effort to help Assemblyman Vincent Polistina upset Democratic Sen. Jim Whelan. However, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by 9,000.

In the 16th District, which has been reshaped to include more Democratic towns, the Democrats have sent out at least three mailers describing Republican Sen. “Kip” Bateman as a professional politician in an attempt to unseat him and Assemblyman Peter Biondi. The Democrats are running Maureen Vella for Senate and Marie Corfield, a Flemington-Raritan school teacher, and South Brunswick Councilman Joe Camarota for Assembly. However, Bateman is a name well known in New Jersey politics and that can only help him.

In the 14th District in Mercer and Middlesex counties, the Republicans are hoping Richard Kanka, the father of the murdered child Megan Kanka, can upset Democratic Sen. Linda Greenstein

In the 1st District in Cape May, Atlantic and Cumberland counties, the Republicans are hoping they can at least bump Democrat Matthew Milan out of his Assembly seat.

In the 7th District in Burlington and Camden counties where Democratic Assemblyman Jack Connors is not seeking re-election, the Republican are hoping to pickup a lower house seat. Democratic Assemblyman Troy Singleton is seeking a full two-year term.

In the reshaped 11th District in Monmouth County, the Democrats have spent $100,000 in a bid to unseat one or more of the Republican incumbents, Sen. Jennifer Beck, and Assemblywomen Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande. If the three incumbents are re-elected, they will become the first all-female legislative team in the history of the Legislature.