newjerseynewsroom.com

Incumbent holds slight edge at 43-41

BY TOM HESTER SR.

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

A third university-based poll conducted over the weekend and made public Monday finds New Jersey's race for governor is a statistical dead heat, but that incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine appears to have a razor thin 43 to 41 percent lead over Republican challenger Chris Christie.

Independent Chris Daggett has 8 percent of the potential vote.

Pollsters said the results mark a slight, but statistically insignificant, shift from the 43 to 42 percent nominal lead Christie held in polling conducted from Wednesday through Friday.

"This race is still as close as it can be,'' said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University/Gannett Newspapers poll. "It's possible that President Obama's visit boosted the governor's chances. But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie. If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker.''

As also found in a Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll released earlier Monday, the majority of people who voted by mail are backing Corzine.

The Monmouth/Gannett poll finds that about 6 percent of New Jersey voters have cast their ballot by mail, similar to the percentage of mail ballots received in last year's presidential race. For these ballots, Corzine looks to have the decided advantage. A majority of 53 percent of mail voters say they voted for the incumbent, compared to just 31 percent for Christie, 11 percent for Daggett and 5 percent for other candidates.

"Last year, the Democrats demonstrated the ability to use the state's new vote by mail rules to their advantage,'' Murray said. "It didn't really matter in the presidential race where the outcome was never in doubt. But if the machine count has the race too close to call and they're still counting mail ballots late into the night, it could be a good sign for Corzine."

The two lead candidates are running strong among their partisan bases, although Christie has dropped by a few points in the past couple of days. Republican voters give 82 percent support to their party's nominee, compared to 10 percent for Corzine and 4 percent for Daggett.

Democratic voters give 77 percent support to their party's nominee, compared to 8 percent for Christie and 7 percent for Daggett.

Independent voters shifted the most over the weekend. In the prior poll, Christie had a 51 to 29 percent lead over Corzine. He now holds a smaller 43 to 33 percent advantage among independents.

The poll found that Corzine's job performance rating stands at 36 percent approve to 54 percent disapprove, which is basically unchanged from prior polls. However, his personal rating has improved, now registering at 40 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable. While still in net negative territory, this is better than the 39 to 49 percent personal rating the governor had last week.

Christie's personal rating is a net positive 40 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable. This is down slightly from last week's 44 to 36 percent rating. It is also down significantly from the 50 percent favorable to 26 percent unfavorable rating he held back in July.

Daggett's personal rating remains steady at 21 percent favorable to 21 percent unfavorable, with the majority, 58 percent, of likely voters saying they never really formed an opinion of the independent candidate.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone with 722 New Jersey likely voters on Saturday and Sunday. This sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.