newjerseynewsroom.com

BY TOM HESTER SR.

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

With two years to go before facing re-election in November 2012 to a second six-year term on Capitol Hill, U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) has a lot of handshaking and baby kissing to do, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PubicMind poll made public Monday.

The poll found 31 percent of Menendez's constituency has a favorable opinion of him and 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Another 29 percent either are unsure and 15 percent haven't heard of him at all.

"Those are fairly anemic numbers for an energetic guy who has already served nearly six years," Prof. Peter Woolley, a political scientist and the poll's director, said.

It should be noted that despite the poll numbers, a failed effort to recall Menendez, and Republican gains in Congress in the Nov. 2 election, New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Sen. Clifford P. Case won what was his final term in 1972. In 2012, that will be 40 years.

Among Democrats, 17 percent say they don't recognize Menendez's name, 26 percent say they are unsure or have no opinion of him, 10 percent have an unfavorable opinion, but 47 percent say their opinion is favorable.

By contrast, New Jersey's senior U.S. senator, Democrat Frank Lautenberg, rates 42 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable among all voters, and among Democrats, 58 percent have a favorable view of Lautenberg, while 12 percent have an unfavorable view.

"When Menendez was elected in 2006, his campaign tapped into the unpopularity of the president and voters' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country," Woolley said. "Next time it will be his Republican opponent who will try to exploit presidential unpopularity and concern over the direction of the country."

In 2006, just before Menendez's defeat of Republican state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the FDU poll showed that New Jersey voters by a margin of two-to-one disapproved of President George W. Bush -- 63 percent to 32 percent -- and just 22 percent
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/heavily/said the country was headed in the right direction.

For now, President Obama is ahead in New Jersey: With the heat of the midterm elections behind New Jerseyans, 51 percent approve of the president and 40 percent disapprove, up from 47 percent and 43 percent in October's run-up to the elections.

However, 58 percent say the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 31 percent who say it is headed in the right direction. Men and women agree the country is on the wrong track, and Democrats split on the question 47 percent to 42 percent.

"When voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, it is incumbents who get the blame," Woolley said. "I know at least two Democrats who are hoping that dissatisfaction will abate a little before the next national election in 2012."

The poll of 804 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Nov. 15 through Nov. 21, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.