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This is the classic disaster scenario for the GOP in NJ. They have a candidate with a strong showing throughout the summer. Likely voter screens show a committed GOP backing its candidate more solidly than Democrats back theirs. And then the fall campaign kicks up, Democratic machines swing into action, urban Democratic voters start paying attention, and then the final vote matches the "registered" voter numbers rather than the earlier pro-GOP "likely voter" screen. That's why Corzine taking the lead among registered voters is so important. In a machine state like NJ the final tally will likely resemble the registered voter numbers.