newjerseynewsroom.com

BY ALAN J. STEINBERG

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

COMMENTARY

As we approach the finalization of the New Jersey Fiscal Year 2011 Budget, Governor Chris Christie has established himself as the most conservative governor of New Jersey during the past half century, both on social and economic issues. His three major present priorities are: 1) unprecedented state budgetary expenditure reductions; 2) a 2.5 percent hard cap on property tax increases; and 3) appointment of strict constructionist Supreme Court justices who will refrain from legislating from the bench. These three objectives together constitute the most ambitious conservative agenda pursued by a northeastern state governor in modern political history.

Yet while Christie's conservative credentials are unassailable, he is not a movement conservative. A "movement" conservative is defined as one whose political beliefs are highly influenced and shaped by conservative ideological organizations with whom he or she is closely affiliated.

Christie's agenda and initiatives, while unmistakably conservative, have been largely conceived and shaped by the Governor himself, while refined by his staff and cabinet. Certainly, no prominent national or state conservative ideological organization can claim credit for formulating any significant Christie initiative. The Governor is not known to have any close affiliation with any such entity.

The fact that Christie is not a movement conservative, however, is a most significant asset for him in forging a strong center-right political base. Centrist Republicans are highly uncomfortable with movement conservatives. They are most enthusiastic supporters, however, of the non-movement conservative Governor Chris Christie. At the same time, the national icons of movement conservatism, i.e. Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and Sean Hannity all display adulation of New Jersey's new governor.

The June 8, 2010 primary election results and subsequent polling provide strong evidence of the effectiveness of Christie's non-movement conservative appeal.

That was the night the New Jersey Tea Party movement rocked the Monmouth County Republican establishment. In Monmouth County, Congressional candidates Anna Little and Dave Corsi, both endorsed by the New Jersey Tea Party movement, ran ahead of their respective Republican organization endorsed opponents Diane Gooch and Scott Sipprelle. Little scored a narrow victory in the 6th Congressional District primary, while Sipprelle was able to eke out a victory in the 12th Congressional District by virtue of his margins in the portions of the district outside Monmouth County.

Yet the Monmouth County primary results were not at all a negative for Governor Christie. A Rasmussen Poll published on Wednesday, June 16 reported that "nineteen percent (19%) of New Jersey voters describe themselves as members of the Tea Party movement, slightly higher than the finding nationally. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Tea Party voters approve of Christie's job performance and the same number (73%) give him good or excellent marks for his handling of the budget crisis."

Politics is the art of the possible, and Tea Party voters realize that Chris Christie is their best hope for less government and lower taxes. In effect, since the day he was inaugurated, Christie has preempted the Tea Party agenda. From the Rasmussen Poll, one can definitely infer that the Little and Corsi voters in the June 8 primary are also supporters of Governor Christie and his agenda, regardless of his non-movement conservative status.

The effectiveness of the "non-movement" aspect of Christie's conservatism could be seen on that same primary night when he spoke on at the headquarters of Jon Runyan, the victor in the Republican 3rd Congressional District primary. The speech was televised by NJN. As a conservative, Christie was able to credibly reach out to Runyan's defeated opponent, Justin Murphy, to back the victor. As a non-movement conservative, Christie was able to effectively appeal to centrist Republicans and independents on behalf of Runyan, the Republican challenger to incumbent 3rd District Democratic Representative John Adler.

Runyan faces an uphill fight against Adler, one of the most highly politically skilled players in New Jersey politics and government over the past two decades. In no way will that race be a referendum on the Governor's record. Nevertheless, Christie's center-right appeal can only be a positive for Runyan when the Governor campaigns on his behalf.

Among independent voters, the Governor scored a sixty percent (60%) approval rating in the aforesaid Rasmussen Poll and fifty percent (50%) in the Quinnipiac Poll of June 17. These ratings attest to a high degree of comfort of independent New Jerseyans with the non-movement conservative Christie, certainly a higher degree of comfort than they would feel with a movement conservative.

The Governor has said, "I came here to govern, not to worry about reelection." I absolutely believe that Christie means this. It is far too early to speculate on the Governor's prospects for reelection when he has only completed five months of his term. Nevertheless, it is clear that as long as the Governor pursues his agenda of less government, lower taxes, and empowerment of local officials, he will maintain a strong center-right base.

National media commentators have begun to acknowledge that if he attains his budgetary and hard cap property tax objectives, Chris Christie will have established a template for other Governors throughout the nation to follow in terms of fiscal governance. It may also well be that in governing as a non-movement conservative and forging a strong center-right coalition, Chris Christie may be establishing a template for Republican candidates to follow in achieving gubernatorial election victories in the northeastern United States.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations. He currently serves as Public Servant in Residence at Monmouth University.