By Matt Marino

“Kind of helpless,” “a little bit lost,” and “it’s not like it’s supposed to be.” These are just some of the thoughts about this offseason by a few coaches around the NFL - successful coaches - Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin and Mike Smith respectively. And it’s with good reason they are feeling this way. Teams around the league have not been able to sign free agents, sign their draft picks or hold offseason workouts and mini camps. Coaches and players are not allowed to speak to one another, keeping them out of the loop from what is going on in player-run workouts, or players recovering from offseason surgery.

So why is one NFL coach so confident in his own team that he is able to issue a guarantee (for the third time in three years) that they will win the Super Bowl with so much uncertainty around the league as well as his own team?

For almost three years now, Rex Ryan has been writing a lot of checks with his mouth. In 2009, the New York Jets hired Ryan to turn around their franchise, and in two seasons he has not only put the Jets among the elite teams in the league, but also one of the most talked about.

They gained publicity, positive and negative, through HBO’s Hard Knocks at the start of the 2010 season and they continued on that same up-and-down path until they lost the AFC Championship game, for the second year in a row. Based on his team’s success in the playoffs the past two years (4-2) and his impressive regular season record at 24-14, he has good reason to feel confident in his predictions. However, this offseason is unlike any other, begging the question, does Ryan really know what he is guaranteeing?

The Jets were built for success in 2010 under the rules set forth by the NFL collective bargaining agreement. With the NFL in an uncapped year, the Jets were able to sign players who normally wouldn’t fit their budget. The problem it left them is that they face the 2011 offseason with 14 unrestricted free agents. Right now, sitting in free agency are 13 of their 20 touchdown receptions, their only two special teams touchdowns, their team leader in forced fumbles and the team leader in interceptions.

In addition to those key players, there are five more starters on offense and defense (Ellis, Pool, E. Smith, Richardson and Hunter) and their punter, Steve Weathford, who tied the record for most punts inside the 20 in 2010. The Jets are not without help though. Their first two picks in the draft will fill voids in the defense. Both, Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis will see significant playing time right away (as long as Ellis is not sentenced to jail time) and getting safety Jim Leonard back from a season ending injury will help with their offseason spending.

However, the biggest question marks were not addressed in the draft and since free agency has not started, we are left to wonder how Rex Ryan can guarantee his team will be walking away with the Lombardi Trophy in February. Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith accounted for 35 percent of the Jets’ scoring in 2010, excluding extra points. And it’s likely the Jets will only be able to resign one of those guys, maybe two if one takes a pay cut. Antonio Cromartie led the team in interceptions and passes defended.

In a league that is driven by quarterbacks and receivers and, because of that, pass rushers and corners that come at a premium, where does the confidence come from? Ryan is smart enough to know that Jeremy Kerley and Scotty McKnight are not going to light up the touchdown column. Kerley is a nice addition and can certainly take Brad Smith’s place in the return game, but McKnight is a Mark Sanchez pick and a project at best, assuming he even makes the roster. The Jets didn’t address the pass rush or their secondary in the draft and, with Kyle Wilson underachieving as a rookie; you have to believe they will allocate some money to the cornerback position though free agency if Cromartie leaves.

Maybe Ryan just flat out believes in his system; his pressure defense with a solid running game that uses play action has worked, especially in the development of Mark Sanchez. Maybe he believes the Jets will be able to resign a number of their top free agents. Or, maybe he just flat out believes in this franchise now - something that not many people have done in the last decade. The work ethic and the confidence the coaching staff has instilled and the types of players this franchise is now drafting have taken them from a traditional long shot (12 playoff appearances in 40 years) to a team that has played for a chance at the Super Bowl more than anyone else in the last two seasons.

Rex Ryan is hands down the best addition to the Jets in Woody Johnson’s tenure as owner but when do his guarantees begin to lose weight for Jets fans? What about fans around the league? Or players around the league? When does this all become just ridiculous? When do we all stop buying into him as an entertainment spectacle, step back and gain some perspective of the situation? Not only do the fans, players and media around the league need to understand him as a coach, but he should want to as well. At least before he has no checks left in the book.