newjerseynewsroom.com

BY STEVEN DiMARTINO

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

A storm is starting to organize this morning over the coastal waters of the Bahamas and over the Mississippi River Valley that will combine to create dangerous weather conditions this Sunday on through Tuesday.

For today and tomorrow however, high pressure will be in complete control with tranquil weather conditions. The high pressure system will continue to slowly shift towards the Canadian Maritimes today leading to a light easterly wind at around 5 to 10 mph. With the winds off the Atlantic, variable cloud cover can be expected through the period with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60's over the northern interior, upper 60's to lower 70's over the New York City metropolitan area, and lower to mid 70's over the Philadelphia metropolitan areas for highs and upper 40's to mid 50's for lows.

By Sunday, the impacts of Hurricane Sandy and an advancing cold front from the west will start to be felt. Hurricane Sandy will be transitioning to what is known as a Sub Tropical storm by this point which means that while the storm has tropical attributes, the wind field is larger and thus impacts a greater number of locations. Periods of showers will increase in coverage from south to north on Sunday with the heaviest and steadiest precipitation focused over southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania. Winds will steadily increase from the east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60's for highs on Sunday afternoon.

Conditions go down hill from there for much of the region as rain becomes heavier and expands in coverage. As Sandy approach the region and tracks towards the central and southern New Jersey coast, bands of rain will invade from the Atlantic with very heavy downpours. Winds will become sustained at or over 50 mph with gusts exceed 75 mph at times. Significant coastal flooding can be expected for all of the New York City metropolitan area, the New Jersey coast, and Delaware River. Localized flash flooding will also be a threat as well. Temperatures will steadily fall through the 50's through the day on Monday.

By Tuesday, the storm will lift into central Pennsylvania with period of rain continuing but becoming more scattered in nature by the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will remain strong at 25 to 50 mph with higher gusts but will veer from the east to the west and southwest. With colder air working in, temperatures will steadily fall through the 50's and into the 40's. Some of the rain may mix with snow and sleet at times, especially for higher elevations. However, no accumulation is expected.

This storm will produce significant impacts on the region with rainfall amounts region wide over three inches and in some locations over 10 inches. Wind damage will be a significant threat as will significant coastal flooding. Further, power outages will be a significant threat as well. The areas most likely to experience the worst conditions for this storm are southern Connecticut, all of southeastern New York, all of New Jersey, and all of Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding will be a major problem for coastal New Jersey, the Delaware Bay and River, much of Long Island, and the Battery of New York City.

The storm will exit with improving yet chilly and windy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered cloud cover can be expected with temperatures in the upper 30's for lows and upper 40's for highs.