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TagsBY JOSH McMAHON
NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM
COMMENTARY
The gubernatorial campaign scrum with Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie always has held the promise to be one of the state's bloodiest.
Take a look at their previous careers — Corzine as a Wall Street know-it-all and Christie as a white knight crime fighter — and it's clear that both know how to get what they want. It's also clear neither guy likes to lose. Such campaigns make for great news stories as the race takes one unpredictable turn after another.
As the news gods would have it, the race has taken one of those turns. Chris Daggett, an independent, has raised enough money to qualify for state matching funds. That confers instant credibility on Daggett's candidacy. He won't have the Corzine kind of money and probably not even as much as Christie but, he'll have enough to get his message out there and make an impact.
Even more important, by qualifying for state matching money, he'll be included in the series of debates with Christie and Corzine. He'll get a chance to show that he's a viable alternative.
For Daggett, being the alternative is a major part of his rationale for running.
Daggett says he, like scores of others, became convinced that "neither party is willing or able to address the fiscal and budgetary issues facing the state."
What's needed, he adds, is "someone who is independent and not beholding to special interests to step up to the issues and work with people from all over the state to get things done."
Make no mistake, Daggett isn't one of those ideology-driven candidates who have limited appeal. His message of change is inviting to all.
The two parties, he points out, have shown themselves incapable of governing and so it's time for somebody else. That's stating the obvious.
"What we need is a fresh approach," he says. "We need someone who is not at all tied by party ideology or allied with party interests. I fit that."
As he has traveled the state, Daggett says it's clear that people are "very angry" at both parties. The dissatisfaction with what has gone on is "much more widespread, than you might think."
He says even Christie supporters, when asked, admit that if the former federal prosecutor wins the election not much will change in Trenton.
That may be true but it doesn't automatically follow that voters fed up with the impotence of Democrats and Republicans to perform will turn to Daggett.
Daggett certainly is qualified. He served as Gov. Tom Kean's deputy chief of staff, was the top federal environmental administrator for the New Jersey/New York region, was the state's environmental commissioner and worked with investments.
In citing his qualifications, Daggett also likes to note that he has demonstrated an ability to get warring factions in a room and resolve differences.
So there's no questioning his credentials. Daggett deserves a shot and he's getting it. But can he pull it off or do the powers of the parties just too potent for any independent?
In making a case for an independent candidate, Daggett and others, like to point to the huge number of New Jersey voters who consider themselves independent. Current party registration shows 34 percent are Democrats, 20 percent Republicans and 46 percent independents.
But this is not all as it seems.
Patrick Murray, the head of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, has examined the independents in New Jersey. Here's what he has to say:
"While nearly half of registered voters are unaffiliated, some of them are party line voters in general elections. This number has gone down since February 2008 when a number of unaffiliateds finally ‘came out of the closet' to vote in a primary and are now registered with their preferred party."
Despite what the official registration numbers show, Murray says," when we ask voters how they think of themselves in our polls, we consistently get 42 percent Democrats, 23 percent Republicans and 35 percent independent."
When the numbers are crunched, the results are that "only about one-third of the potential (key word) electorate is really independent minded in terms of their vote," says Murray. So forget that figure that nearly half the voters are independent and there for the taking by any candidate.
But that's not the only problem with those legions of independents.
Another is the turnout rate. Murray says that according to information from voter lists, in 2008 about 60 percent of unaffiliated voters actually bothered to go to the polls. That compares with about 85 percent of registered Democrats and Republicans.
Murray notes that Daggett has another challenge.
"New Jersey doesn't have a history of independent voting (like Minnesota or Maine, for example). And we don't have a politically attentive electorate — mainly because we lack a broadcast media market that covers New Jersey politics."
As a result, those swing voters don't really start paying attention until the television ads begin in earnest, he says.
Murray's final bit of bad news for any independent candidate is that he "needs to enter the race with huge name recognition (and I'm talking Bon Jovi level here) to even have a chance."
Still, Daggett does have a chance. He has managed to raise at least $350,000 and figures if he can collect $100 from 3,000 New Jerseyans he would have enough to win the race.
Besides the number of independent voters and the public funding he will receive, Daggett sees other reasons why this is the year for him. For starters, Corzine is "very unpopular," Christie has "zero experience" and no skills to be governor.
Then there's the internet which he says "levels the playing field."
The internet, he says, lets him "reach past party bosses and the traditional gate keepers of the political process to reach voters directly."
When asked whether he will take more votes from Corzine or Christie more, Daggett says a case could be made for either one.
That may be true but there's one thing for sure: Daggett has to take votes from somebody.
Josh McMahon is a former member of The Star-Ledger's editorial board and also had served as the newspaper's editor for politics and government.