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BY JOSH MCMAHON
NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM
COMMENTARY
June's a happening month in Trenton, particularly for a freshman governor. It's the time to take a measure of the new guy – even someone like Gov. Chris Christie who certainly isn't a political toddler unsure of his footing during the initial months of his term.
He's made it clear that he's not sheepish about offering his opinion and getting what he wants. (Ask Education Commissioner Bret Schundler about that.)
His swagger is refreshing and entertaining but it's not policy.
By the end of this month we'll have a more accurate gauge of just how successful he's been and is likely to be in reshaping the state.
While dealing with the state's fiscal crisis by getting his budget approved is his primary task in the coming weeks, it won't be the most important debate in the Capitol.Rather Christie's future success will be determined more by what happens with the what some might consider the undercard – the other June issues.
Republican leaders expect to have the spending package wrapped up by June 24 well in advance of the July 1 constitutional deadline. Nothing indicates they're far off with that prediction.
That's not to say that there' won't be much caterwauling by Democrats about the $29 billion spending plan.
Still the Democrats have really nothing to add. They have no ideas to offer as authentic alternatives to what Christie proposed. That won't stop the talking.
As St. Augustine put it, "The poverty of the human intellect expresses itself in an abundance of language." Amen.
Undoubtedly there will be some changes to the governor's budget but most relatively minor ones -- mainly because there simply isn't any money.
As I've written before, something else distinguishes this year's budget battle from previous ones when the economy was rough. In those days lawmakers and the governor talked of penny pinching but then "reluctantly" concluded increasing taxes was the only solution (See Gov. Jon Corzine June 2006).
Unlike Corzine and other governors who found themselves in a money squeeze, Christie is not going hat-in-hand to the Democrats asking them for more cash.
It's the majority Democrats who want Christie to spend more than he asked for.
That's simply not going to happen primarily because he's adamantly opposed to new taxes and because process wise he has total control. He gets to line-item veto any spending the Democrats insert and he doesn't like.
The onus is on the ruling Democrats in the Legislature to deliver a balanced spending document by the end of the month.
Christie will take it from there.
So don't look for any stand off resulting in a state shutdown this year.
But this by itself isn't an accurate measure of just how effective he has been in remolding public policy.
That comes from the other June issues.
Prime among them is a 33-bill package that Christie says will provide towns and school boards with the tools needed to control property taxes. The marquee proposal in that package is a constitutional amendment to limit future property taxes increase to 2.5 percent.
The stack of bills also includes changes that are designed to give municipalities and school boards an edge in negotiating with unions.
GOP leaders believe they can get more than half of the 33 measures – maybe 18 or so – passed by the end of the month. The exception, and it's a big one, is the property tax cap.
It's not the idea of the cap that Democrats and others oppose but what's included in that cap. Are healthcare costs part of it? Is debt service? Fuel costs? Cuts in state aid?
Here's the catch with this one. It has to happen this year if it's going to happen at all. There are no state legislative races this November. Next year all 120 lawmakers will be running. None of them want such an explosive issue joining them on the ballot.
So it's this year or never. This will be a big test of Christie's clout in Trenton and his persuasive powers with the public.
The constitutional amendment, if it is to be on the ballot this fall, must be approved by the Legislature by the end of August. So if it doesn't get the okay by the end of June look for a special summer session.
Beyond that, Christie is pushing a school choice program. The momentum on that one is on his side but whether it's enough to win approval from the legislature by end of the month remains a huge question.
And there's the unemployment problem. Under current law, employers will be required to write huge checks to the state's unemployment fund next month to cover loses. Lawmakers and Christie need to agree on changes to avoid those monumental increases. Both want to limit what companies have to pay - the target increase is $139 per employee.
Christie also wants to save money by lowering weekly benefits for those who find themselves out of work in the future. He wants to lower the weekly check from $600 to $550.
Democrats don't like that, saying he wants to take money out of the pockets of the ones hurting the most. But that money was never in their pockets, so they won't realize any drop in benefits.
This is one issue, along with the budget that must be resolved by July 1.
Beyond those issues, Christie has to deal with an independent-minded education commissioner who has already clashed twice with the chief. It's possible that Schundler won't make it to the end of June.
June traditionally is the busiest month in Trenton. The next few weeks will demonstrate why.
By the time we flip the calendar we're likely to have a clearer understanding of where New Jersey is headed and whether Christie will be leading the way.
Josh McMahon was a member of The Star-Ledger's editorial board and had served as the paper's political editor. He may be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
