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Tags63 percent are pessimistic about outlook while state's economic conditions have improved
BY JOE TYRRELL
NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM
Business confidence is not keeping pace with economic conditions in New Jersey, according to results from two reports.
The latest coincident index of economy activity released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia puts New Jersey among 18 states where conditions have gotten slightly better in recent months.
Mapping trends around the country for the three months ending in February, the Philadelphia Fed showed New Jersey and North Carolina as the only bright spots on the East Coast south of New York.
The Philadelphia Fed compiles state-by-state data on non-farm payroll employment; average hours worked in manufacturing; the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index. The Fed compares the trend for each state index against those for gross domestic product.
Overall, the Fed's U.S. index crept up a bare 0.1 percent for February and for the entire three months. But there were sharp regional differences, with the Mountain West and much of the Midwest faring poorly, while most of both New England and the Far West did better.New Jersey gained 0.2 percent in February and 0.3 percent overall. That was markedly stronger than Maryland and Delaware, and somewhat better than Pennsylvania or Virginia.
But all such studies represent snapshots. States whose short-term trends look good include North Dakota, whose economy has held up relatively during the Great Recession, as well as hard-hit Michigan.
There, the recession fell upon an economy already savaged by the shift of manufacturing to other countries and the decline of the auto industry. Both produced widespread layoffs and plant closures even before the downturn.
Context might help explain the trepidation felt by some New Jersey business owners about the near future. PNC Bank's semi-annual Economic Outlook survey found 63 percent of the 153 New Jersey business owners surveyed are pessimistic about both local and national prospects in the next six months.
That is almost as bleak a view as a year ago, and markedly worse than PNC's previous survey in October, when most of those surveyed in New Jersey were at least moderately optimistic about short-term prospects.
Of 508 businesses surveyed around the country, PNC found most worried about the national outlook, but with majorities expecting their local economies and their own sales and profits to remain stable or improve. One in five said their businesses were never hurt or already have started to recover.
In Pennsylvania, only a handful of those surveyed expect things to get markedly better in the next six months, but only 42 percent were pessimistic. Like their counterparts across the Delaware, though, Pennsylvanians are not as confident as they were in the fall.
While New Jersey has closely tracked national economic trends, the less optimistic opinions here follow worrisome news from Trenton. Gov. Chris Christie's attempts to rein in state spending could trigger local property tax hikes, with layoffs in the public sector come on top of continued high unemployment.
Joe Tyrrell may be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
