newjerseynewsroom.com

BY ANTHONY STOECKERT

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

ON THE OSCARS

Horse racing fans know the term "overlay" as a horse that is better than its odds. Rather than placing bets on 2-1 favorites, overlay devotees look for bigger payouts by betting on a horse that's not a favorite, but is entering a race at bigger odds (say around 15-1) than its past performances would indicate.

I don't think there are many overlay opportunities when predicting this year's Oscar race. As Roger Ebert said on Oprah Winfrey's show, this is one of the easiest years to pick the winners ever. The obvious choices are: Best Picture: "The Hurt Locker," Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (for "The Hurt Locker"), Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (for "Crazy Heart"), Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (for "The Blind Side"), Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (for "Inglourious Basterds"), Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (for "Precious").

Not that I think those are all locks. "Hurt Locker" could lose to "Avatar," Bigelow could lose to James Cameron (but I really doubt the Academy will turn down this opportunity to award an Oscar to a woman director for the first time) and Bullock could lose to Meryl Streep for her wonderful take on Julia Childs in "Julie & Julia."

It'll be shocking if any of those contenders fall, but in the spirit of finding an overlay, I'm laying out my picks in each category for the people (or movies) most likely to pull a real upset.

Best Supporting Actor: Waltz gave the best performance of the year for his take on the Nazi Colonel Hans Lando in Quentin Tarantino's WW II rewrite. But if an upset is to be had here, expect the statue to go to Woody Harrelson for his performance in "The Messenger," the other Iraq movie. He's made something of a comeback in recent years (the Academy loves comebacks), his performance has been widely praised, and it would reward Harrelson for a long career.

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique is guaranteed to win here, but the most likely upset is Maggie Gyllenhaal. Not that Gyllenhaal is particularly good but Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick would likely split the "Up in the Air" vote, and there's simply no juice behind Penelope Cruz and "Nine."

Best Actor: Anyone but Bridges would be a shock but looking at the rest of the field: Morgan Freeman's movie, "Invictus" is a distant memory, and George Clooney's role in "Up in the Air" seems more a perfect fit than great acting. (Freeman and Clooney have also won supporting Oscars in recent years, so it would make no sense to honor them again at Bridges' expense.) Jeremy Renner's brilliant performance in "The Hurt Locker" gets overlooked because everything in that movie seems so real. That leaves Colin Firth as the leading underdog. His understated performance in "A Single Man" is wonderful, he's been acting for a long time, and British actors are so dignified, aren't they?

Best Actress: I actually think there's a chance of a real upset here. Carey Mulligan shines in every moment of "An Education" (though I thought the movie as a whole was overrated). She carries that movie as the young British student who is charmed by a rogue. She's also won a bunch of critics' award and "An Education" is the kind of classy British movie Oscar voters are drawn to.

Best Director: Bigelow is a near lock, with Cameron having a slight chance to pull an upset. If neither of them win, expect Tarantino to go home with Oscar. "Basterds" has its detractors, but Tarantino is a filmmaker with a definite style. He's never won a directing Oscar (he did win a screenplay honor for writing "Pulp Fiction"), so this would be a chance to honor the most influential director of the past 15 years.

Best Picture: This is tough for several reasons. First, this honor is certainly going to either "The Hurt Locker" or "Avatar." Second, the voting for the night's biggest prize involves several rounds where the lowest vote-getters are eliminated, making predicting particularly tough. But let's say those two movies split the vote, in that case I think voters will go for "Up in the Air." It's an irresistible star-driven movie with great dialogue and that says something about the world we're living in.

Now if I had a ballot, here's how I'd vote: "Up," Tarantino, Streep, Renner, Farmiga, Waltz.

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