newjerseynewsroom.com

BY MIKE VORKUNOV

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

COMMENTARY

Well it's a fait accompli by now isn't it? A question of when, not if. A report out of Kansas City may have jumped the gun, but it seems only a formality now that Rutgers will get an invitation to join the Big Ten. You don't have to be Professor Trelawney to read these tea leaves.

And despite a year's worth of compelling arguments, the move still does not look like the right one. But it may be the only one. It looks as if the dominoes of the Big Ten's expansion will decimate the Big East, finishing it off like the ACC never could.

"There's no truth to it whatsoever," said Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith of the report that Rutgers and three others have already received their invitations. "Actually, Jim sent us all an e-mail telling us there's no truth to that – which we knew. There's no extensions of offers that have been made, so that's not true."

This is a move made for football reasons, plain and simple (Well ... for economic reasons but the two are interrelated in collegiate athletics). The feeling among the fan base is that if Rutgers can get a piece of the $22 million each Big Ten school gets from the conference's television contract for its eponymous network (and that payout is sure to grow with the next TV deal it signs and the money coming in from the new conference championship game) it can facilitate the final awakening of a sleeping giant.

According to a report by the Newark Star-Ledger, seven Big Ten schools spent more on their athletic department than Rutgers did in 2008-09. Will added revenue increase the spending budget by Rutgers? Yes. But it's not like the other schools would stand pat. It's not hard to see the Scarlet Knights still at a financial disadvantage.

On the field, where exactly would Rutgers stand as a program. Surely, Ohio State is head and shoulders above it. Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa and struggling Michigan all have a stronger tradition and expectations of future success (yes, even Michigan). The last time Michigan or Ohio State didn't share a piece of the conference title was 2001, making the Big Ten ladder significantly tougher to climb than that of the egalitarian Big East.

With a move to the Big Ten, Rutgers could very well resign itself to mediocrity. Sure, there will be better bowl games for putting up the same record. 8-4 in the Big Ten probably won't get you a trip to the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, but isn't the goal to win championships and make the BCS? Those chances depreciate with the move.

And, of course, Michigan coming to Rutgers in November is way sexier than a similarly timed trip from South Florida. But Rutgers and New Jersey fans have shown themselves to be finicky and apt to jump on and off the bandwagon. Thinking long-term, if the Knights struggle to reach their expected zenith, will the fans still come out?

As for the basketball programs, it sure wouldn't make things easier. The women's basketball program would probably be all right. C. Vivian Stringer has shown an aptitude to recruit from around the country and a move away from monolith Connecticut should help.

But the men's program could struggle with the move. The Big Ten doesn't have the top-to-bottom depth of the Big East but it's not a huge step down. Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and Wisconsin are annual top-25 teams. Then there are five other schools on better footing. Coming into the league, Rutgers would be on equal footing with Iowa and Penn State. It would be an easier climb to the middle, but there is still a ceiling to success. It's a move for the sake of mediocrity.

Ultimately, this whole process will be about the money. It always is. Yet, for a school and fan base so desperately craving success, it seems like the wrong reason to move. Then again, Rutgers may eventually have no choice. But if it does, it should think long and hard about staying in the Big East.