newjerseynewsroom.com

Democrats more concerned about job creation

New Jersey Democrats and Republicans have differing priorities for the new U.S. Congress, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll made public Tuesday.

While Democrats name "jobs" as their top priority, Republicans focus on the health care reform issue as the most important task for Congress. Independents, while having favored Republican congressional candidates by 11 points (46 percent to 35 percent) agree with Democrats that jobs are the most important issue.

New Jersey's unemployment rate is 9.2 percent and dropped less than 1 percentage point this year.

"Republicans and Democrats continue to have different priorities even after all the talk of coming together in compromise to resolve the country's problems," Prof. David Redlawsk, the poll's director said. "Partisans are simply on different wavelengths — for Republicans jobs rank only fourth as a priority, while only one in ten Democrats wants to see health care re-opened."

Of those interviewed, 64 percent said they voted and could recall the direction of their vote. Partisans did not deviate from their parties: 94 percent of both Democrats and Republicans say they voted for a congressional candidate from their party. Independents, however, continued to lean Republican as they did in last year's gubernatorial election, with 46 percent of independents voting Republican and 35 percent voting Democrat. A surprising 19 percent of independents said they voted for a third party candidate.

"As is nearly always the case, those who identify with a party voted for a candidate from that party," Redlawsk said. "But Democrats have to be worried that independent voters continue to show a strong preference for Republican candidates."

Asked in an open-ended question to name the "single most important thing" they would like Congress to "fix" in the upcoming session, 21 percent of New Jerseyans say jobs are most important, while 16 percent say the economy overall should be first. Another 16 percent say health care is the priority, while 12 percent say taxes are too high, and 8 percent worry about the budget deficit.

Priorities differ widely by party.

For Democrats, jobs are the clear top priority at 26 percent, followed by the economy in general at 19 percent, and fixing health care at 11 percent. Two other issues — tax cuts and the deficit — each gather the support of 6 percent of Democrats.

Republicans, however, put fixing health care at the top of their list, at 23 percent, followed by the economy (20 percent), tax cuts (18 percent), jobs (15 percent), and the budget deficit (11 percent).

Independents share both parties' priorities, though jobs (20 percent) are at the top of their list, followed by health care (15 percent), tax cuts (13 percent), the economy (11 percent) and the budget deficit (8 percent).

Redlawsk cited two key findings from the survey.

"First, Republicans are just less concerned about jobs than either Democrats or independents. They focus on repealing or reshaping the recent health care reform law. Second, for all the focus in Washington on the budget deficit, it's not what anyone wants Congress to make its top priority, given the current economic environment."

Overall, few New Jerseyans think it "very likely" that the priority they consider "most important" will "actually get done." Their pessimism is reflected in the fact that only 7 percent say it is "very likely" Congress will address their concerns come January while another 42 percent say it is "somewhat likely" and 48 percent say it is "not at all likely."

Republicans are more optimistic, reflecting their success in the election. A majority (60 percent) says that it is very or somewhat likely that Congress will accomplish what they see as the most important task, while 39 percent of Republicans think this is not at all likely. Only 46 percent of Democrats feel at all positive, while 51 percent are negative about the prospects of action on their issue. And despite leaning Republican in their votes, independents are no more optimistic than Democrats.

On specific issues, a majority of those focused on jobs and the economy think there is some chance Congress will effectively address these issues, while about 6 in 10 focused on tax cuts and the deficit think it is not at all likely Congress will fix these issues. Those who want health care fixed are also less than optimistic: 44 percent say Congress say it is at least somewhat likely Congress will act, while 51 percent say it is not at all likely.

While the majority of New Jerseyans want their representatives to compromise to get laws passed, Republicans are 19 points more likely than Democrats to want their representatives to "stick to their beliefs." Across all New Jerseyans, the desire for compromise is fairly strong, with 54 percent calling for legislators to work together, compared to 38 percent who say sticking to beliefs is more important. But this is driven by Democrats and independents, and reflected in the voting results, where 65 percent of those who voted Democrat want representatives to compromise, compared to only 44 percent of those who voted Republican.

Education appears strongly related to support for compromise. While only 48 percent of those with a high school education or less support compromise, more than 60 percent of college graduates and post-graduates call for compromise in order to get laws passed.

New Jerseyans who feel favorable to the Tea Party movement are even less likely to want compromise than other Republicans. While 50 percent of Republicans want their representatives to stick to their beliefs, 60 percent of those who support the Teas Party movement hold this view.

"The desire for compromise seems a bit one-sided from a partisan perspective," Redlawsk said. "To some extent this reflects some of the personalities of partisans, as liberals appear more read to compromise than conservatives. But also, winners are less likely to want compromise than those who lose. Even so, for compromise to work, both sides must be willing to give, as reflected in the tax cut extension bill now working through Congress."

The poll of 906 New Jersey adults was conducted Dec. 2-6. The poll has an error of margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

— TOM HESTER SR., NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM