BY CARL GOLDEN

COMMENTARY

While the acknowledgment that tax collections for the year have fallen some $230 million short of projections sparked anew the debate over whether the state can afford any of the proposed tax cuts. The revenue shortfall casts an even greater and longer-range shadow over the state’s fiscal condition.

If falling below initial income estimates continues, it raises the prospect that adjustments that is to say, cuts may be necessary to keep the current budget in balance and force a re-examination of the budget scheduled to go into effect July 1.

When Governor Chris Christie presented the fiscal 2013 budget to the Legislature in February, its proposed spending as well as his call for a 10 percent reduction in income tax rates was based on 7 percent economic growth. A number viewed by many as overly optimistic and probably out of reach.

The April shortfall and the growth rate of just over 2 percent would seem to validate those concerns.  The pace of economic recovery nationally has been excruciatingly slow and it appears that any rebound significant enough to reach the growth rate hoped for by Christie is well into the future.

The Administration responded to the shortfall announcement by cautioning against using one month’s collections to draw a larger and possibly skewed picture while pointing out that two months’ worth of tax collections remain in the current fiscal year and it would be prudent to wait until those results can be factored in.

Fair points, to be sure, but it is highly unlikely that May and June revenues will experience a surge great enough to overcome the April shortfall.