newjerseynewsroom.com

But residents like their Congressmen

New Jersey's opinions of the president, its two U.S. senators and congressmen are basically positive, although Barack Obama's ratings have dipped, a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll finds.

The poll also finds New Jerseyans have grown increasingly dissatisfied with the national government, but doubt a change in congressional leadership would make any difference.

Only 24 percent of New Jersey residents are satisfied with the way things are going in Washington, while 66 percent are dissatisfied. Satisfaction is at its lowest level since the new administration took office last year. Eighty-seven percent of Republicans and 75 percent of independents express dissatisfaction with Washington. Forty-seven percent of Democrats are now more likely to be dissatisfied rather than satisfied, 40 percent — which is a first for them since Obama took office.

At the same time, 51 percent of New Jerseyans doubt that changing party control of Congress would improve the situation. Among the rest, 22 percent prefer to see the Republicans in control of the nation's legislative branch while an identical 22 percent prefer the Democrats. Only Republicans think that the country would be better off with their party in control, 63 perecent, while another 35 percent say it wouldn't matter. Most independents , 62 percent, think the country would be pretty much the same regardless of which party is in power, while the remainder split their preferences between Republican, 19 percent, and Democratic, 14 percent, control.

Democrats are more likely to say that party control of Congress doesn't matter much, 50 percent, rather than being better off with their own party in control, 43 percent.

"National trends indicate that Republicans are primed to pick up seats in Congress,'' Patrick Murray, the poll director, said. "However, the Garden State may not be the most fertile ground for the message that a leadership change will improve the situation.''

New Jerseyans tend to feel pretty good about their own members of Congress.

Fifty-four percent approve of the job their own congressman is doing, compared to only 28 percent who disapprove. Sizable majorities of Democrats, 58 percent, and Republicans, 57 percent, approve of their Congressional representative's job performance. They are joined in this sentiment by 47 percent of independents.

Residents also give more positive than negative reviews to Obama, but opinion is sharply divided along partisan lines and the numbers have been slipping.

Currently, 52 percent of New Jerseyans approve and 42 percent disapprove of the job the president is doing. The state's net positive rating for the president continues to be higher than the national average of 47 percent approve to 47 percent disapprove recorded by Real Clear Politics on July 11. However, it also marks another decline from the 30 point positive gap Obama enjoyed in New Jersey a year ago.

The state's senior senator, Frank Lautenberg, earns positive job ratings from 46 percent of New Jerseyans and negative ratings from 31 percent, with 23 percent having no opinion. The junior senator, Robert Menendez, garners lower ratings - 37 percent approve to 31 percent disapprove - partially due to the larger number of voters who have no opinion of his job performance, 32 percent.

New Jersey ratings for the president and two senators — all Democrats — fall mainly along party lines.

About 8 in 10 Democrats approve of Obama's job performance, 79 percent, 6 in 10 approve of Lautenberg, 62 percent, and over half approve of Menendez, 55 percent.

Conversely, nearly identical numbers of Republicans disapprove of the job all three officials are doing — 82 percent Obama, 60 percent Lautenberg, and 57 percent Menendez. Independents split down the middle on Obama, 47 percent to 47 percent, are more positive toward Lautenberg 40 percent to 34 percent, and are nominally more negative toward Menendez, 31 percent to 33 percent.

A group identified with the Tea Party movement is attempting to mount a recall election of Menendez. Few New Jerseyans, 24 percent, think that holding such a recall election before Menendez's term is up is a particularly good idea. A majority, 53 percent, say such an election would be bad for the state. Even among those who disapprove of Menendez's job performance, 44 percent, say a recall election would be bad for the state, compared to 45 percent who say it would be a good thing.

Prior to California's successful petition drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis seven years ago, an April 2003 Field Poll showed that most voters in that state thought the recall process would be a bad thing, 59 percent, rather than good thing , 33 percent. That opinion moderated as the recall process moved forward and Davis was eventually ousted. However, he also suffered from much lower job ratings, 24 percent approve to 65 percent disapprove), Menendez does now.

The poll was conducted by telephone with 801 New Jersey adults from July 7 to 11. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

— TOM HESTER SR., NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM