newjerseynewsroom.com

BY ALAN J. STEINBERG

NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM

COMMENTARY

Chris Christie is now the national media rock star for political conservatives and Republicans in general. He is to the Morning Joe show on MSNBC what the Beatles were to the Ed Sullivan Show in the 1960s. His appearances on the NBC Today Show and ABC This Week have received national acclaim. He now graces the cover of National Review. Peggy Noonan extols him in the Wall Street Journal. Time and Newsweek, I am sure, will have cover stories in the near future about "the Christie Phenomenon".

The favorable media has sparked growing talk of a Christie for President candidacy in 2012. It is almost impossible, however, for a first term governor of any state to devote the time and effort necessary for a full-fledged successful candidacy for the Presidency. Ronald Reagan learned this in 1968 when his convention week candidacy for the Republican nomination failed to stop Richard Nixon, the GOP nominee at that year's Miami Beach Republican National Convention.

Furthermore, Christie has made it very clear that he has no intention whatsoever of seeking the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. He forthrightly says that he is not ready for such an effort. As for the vice-presidential nomination, Christie has disclaimed any interest whatsoever by humorously responding, "Can you imagine me being number two to anybody?"

I have no doubt, however, that if Chris Christie's New Jersey poll approval ratings are above fifty percent when the Republicans gather for their national convention in Tampa, Florida on August 27, 2012, he will be at or near the top of the Republican presidential candidate's "short short list" for the vice presidential nomination. By "short short list", I mean the Republican presidential nominee's top three preferences.

If indeed Christie is on the 2012 Republican presidential nominee's vice presidential "short short list", this will be the first time a New Jersey governor achieved this status since former Governor Richard J. Hughes was a finalist in Hubert Humphrey's vice presidential nominee designation in 1968, the other two contenders being Edmund S. Muskie, the eventual vice presidential nominee, and former Senator Fred Harris of Oklahoma.

During their administrations, both former Governors Tom Kean and Christie Whitman were often the subject of media speculation as possible vice presidential candidates. Both would have been excellent nominees, and if necessary could have served competently as President.

Neither Kean nor Whitman, however, ever made the "short short list" of a presidential nominee, since they were both pro-choice on the abortion issue. For better or worse, an anti-abortion position has been a litmus test for a Republican presidential or vice presidential nominee since 1980. Chris Christie has been consistently pro-life, and therefore, there is absolutely no litmus test bar to his selection as a Republican vice presidential nominee.

Chris Christie will never seek the Republican vice presidential nomination in 2012. The nomination, however, may well seek him. There are two compelling reasons for this, aside from the possibility of the Republican presidential ticket capturing the 14 electoral votes of New Jersey, a state which no Republican Presidential candidate has won since George H.W. Bush did so in 1988.

First, Christie has a remarkable appeal to Reagan Democrats, as demonstrated by his success in carrying Democratic Middlesex and Gloucester Counties in the 2009 gubernatorial election. In the 2012 election, recapturing the Reagan Democrats will be the key to Republican hopes of capturing Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes for the first time since 1988. Christie's Reagan Democrat appeal will be a huge asset in this regard.

The second reason is a factor I have only become aware of recently: Christie, born in 1962, also has a unique appeal to what I call the "post-baby boomer generation" born after 1960. While I have not seen this evidenced by any poll, I have developed this perception based on my discussions with people I meet inside and outside New Jersey day to day.

Christie's victory over baby boomer generation Jon Corzine truly marked a generational shift in New Jersey politics, just as the victory of Barack Obama (born in 1961) in the 2008 Presidential election marked the triumph of the post-baby boomers at the national level. The post-baby boomer generation is, by and large, focused on the values of hard work, family, and faith.

Indeed, Barack Obama was at one time the symbol of hope to the post-baby boomers. The President, however, has lost this position of symbolic leadership, perhaps irretrievably, due to a worsening economy and an incoherent foreign policy. Chris Christie's national media appearances have made him an avatar of the hopes and aspirations of the post-baby boomer generation.

In addition to these two political assets, Christie has other attributes that would be much valued by the individual potential Republican presidential nominees.

For Mitt Romney and Mitch Daniels, Christie's vice presidential nomination in itself would be most reassuring to conservatives uneasy about Romney's health care legislation in Massachusetts and the comment of Daniels that the next president "would have to call a truce on the so-called social issues." Christie's record on both social and economic issues in New Jersey is remarkably conservative, especially for a "blue", liberal Democratic state.

Incidentally, Christie and Romney share a mutual close friend in New Jersey state Senator Joe Kyrillos. With regard to Mitch Daniels, as noted by National Review commentator Rich Lowry, these two governors of Indiana and New Jersey, respectively are remarkably in tune in terms of message and small government philosophy.

For southerners Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour, Christie would provide a much needed geographic balance. Barbour is already well acquainted with Christie's political assets from his experience as chair of the Republican Governors Association, which strongly supported Christie in the 2009 campaign.

For low key Tim Pawlenty, Christie's powerful yet entertaining personality would serve as a nice personal balance. The New Jersey governor would provide much needed gravitas to a ticket headed by Sarah Palin. John Thune would greatly benefit from Christie's success with the national media.

Accordingly, as said above, I have no doubt that if Christie has over 50 percent approval ratings in New Jersey polls at the time of the 2012 Republican National Convention, he will be most seriously considered for the vice presidential nomination. The question is whether Christie would accept it. I am not an intimate of his, and I cannot answer that question.

Yet there is no question that all the current talk about Christie being nominated for President or Vice President is certainly good for New Jersey.

The past decade has been one where the national spotlight has often shone on New Jersey in a most unfavorable way. Americans have viewed New Jersey as the state of the McGreevey scandal and exodus as governor in 2004 and the shame of Corruption Thursday in July, 2009. We have been embarrassingly stereotyped by television shows such as "The Sopranos" and "Jersey Shore".

Thus, it is indeed a welcome change for New Jersey to be in the national spotlight due to the success and communication skills of a governor who is without scandal or any ethical taint.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.

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