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TagsBY MIKE VORKUNOV
NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM
All right, so the brackets are finally out and everybody has an opinion. We're here to throws our out there, and hopefully, help you out. Since everything about the NCAA Tournament seems to come in fours (last four in, last four out, Final Four, four regions) here are a slew of things to look at with four examples of each.
Teams that Got Hosed
Four teams that should be upset with their seed, their opponent or bracket
Kansas – So the top overall seed gets thrown into the toughest region. Sure, that sounds about right. In the second round they can face one of two mondo-mid-majors in UNLV or Northern Iowa. A Sweet Sixteen berth means meeting either the dangerous Maryland team or Michigan State, which is as close to an annual bracket Sweet Sixteen lock because Tom Izzo coaches in the tournament better than anyone else. In the bottom of the bracket is Georgetown, a three-seed that could have been a two and is peaking, and Ohio State, who has the best player in the country.
Yup, that's what being the best will get you according to the Selection Committee.Temple – So they throw up some of the more impressive regular season wins in the country by a so-called mid major and sweep the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament championships. That math somehow leads to a five-seed. And they have to face one of the teams that everyone has pegged as a Cinderella. Should they advance they could face Wisconsin, who would have been seeded higher if they didn't have their best player miss significant time.
Tennessee – The Vols have wins over the top two teams in the country in Kansas and Kentucky, as well as a pretty good year especially considering their unexpected circumstances. Makes sense they would be rewarded with the same seed as Marquette, who despite being beloved for their pluck, has a resume that does not compare.
BYU – The Cougars finished second in an extremely difficult Mountain West Conference and came in as the No. 14 team in the country. Instead they get underseeded as a No. 7 seed in the West region and a victory over a flawed, but frisky Florida team means a date with Kansas State. We can assume that the college basketball gods are not Mormon.
Slip a 20 in the Christmas Card
Four teams that should be especially giving to the Selection Committee around the holidays because they received some fortuitous breaks.
Villanova – The Wildcats had a miserable finish to their season but still drew a two-seed and a second round date with the winner of a tame 7-10 matchup. Notre Dame and Baylor are definitely teams to worry about but Villanova is familiar with the Irish and the Bears have their flaws. On the top half of their bracket, there really is no team that they cannot beat, even in their depleted state.
Duke – If the Blue Devils really are worth their salt, then they are all but assured of a trip to the Elite Eight. Check out the bracket, that's as cake as it gets. Not to mention that they received a top seed in the first place, which is questionable at best.
Louisville – Outside of its two victories over Syracuse, impressive as they were, there was a dearth of resume wins. Like zero outside of the conference. As an eight-seed they will face a weak nine in California. We're not saying a first round win is assured, but it's better than they deserved.
Kansas State – There is no problem with the seeding; the Wildcats deserve a two-seed. Where they lucked out is the bracket. They should not face a problem until the Sweet Sixteen with Pittsburgh but even that is a favorable matchup as K-State's bigs should have the advantage over the Panthers'. Kansas State is also one the teams in the country that is well enough coached, long enough and experienced enough to take down Syracuse.
Sleeper
Four teams that can earn you some unexpected points in your pool
Notre Dame – The Irish are a new team, completely doing a 180 after Luke Harangody went down, but plenty of people don't know it. They have plenty of weapons offensively and with their new methodical style they should be in every game. And if you're in it, you can win it. Sounds simple, it is. The old Irish were boom or bust like the stock market. Old Dominion will be tough in the first round, so will Baylor. Should they get to the second weekend, Villanova is a good draw. An Elite Eight run isn't out of the question.
Purdue – When was the last time a four-seed was a sleeper. When it loses its best player a few weeks before the tournament. Without Robbie Hummel, Purdue hasn't look as good as the potential top seed it could have been. But there is still plenty there with E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson. Purdue's first round opponent, Sienna, isn't as good as in previous years and it should beat whoever it faces in the second round. So when is a four-seed a sleeper? When they're not even expected to last more than 40 minutes.
St. Mary's – Yes, they are facing the hot sleeper team in Richmond. But here's a little secret: the Gaels are better. Kenpom.com has them five spots better in their rankings and are 19th in the country in adjusted offense. Richmond struggles to score so it's a good matchup.
Wisconsin – The Badgers could be the best team no one cares about. They have wins this year over Maryland (neutral court), Duke, Marquette, Ohio State and Purdue. With Travon Hughes, a healthy Jon Leuer and Bo Ryan's swing offense, Wisconsin is always a slept-on danger.
Bracket Busters
Four teams that guarantee the lady who picks games based on which mascot would win in a fight will beat you
Sienna – Everybody loves the Saints, but this team is not as good as last year's version. They ranked only 58th in the KenPom rankings and may have missed the tournament if they didn't win their conference automatic bid. Their best win this year is at home over Northeastern. And they don't break the top-50 in either adjusted offense or defensive efficiency. They went 0-4 this year against tournament teams, losing at Temple by four, at Georgia Tech by 13, at Northern Iowa by 17 and at Butler by 17.
Richmond – Some have thrown out the Spiders as a candidate to make a long run in March. Not here. They aren't especially good rebounders or offensively, and mid-major teams that can't score do not have a history of success. They have a tough first round draw and an even tougher one in the second.
Pittsburgh – Yes, the Panthers are tough and a great story but they are not necessarily a great pick. They may be the weakest No. 3 seed, and Jamie Dixon does not have a great history of exceeding expectations in the tournament. They'll have a rough draw of potentially Xavier waiting for them in the second round, with Jordan Crawford being the best player on the floor.
Syracuse – Call this a hunch. Arinze Onuaku is unlikely to play in the first round and is uncertain after that. Their defense has seen holes discovered in their 2-3 zone and if Onuaku is missing, it could get worse. They would face a potential matchup problem in the second round with Florida State, which is the tallest team in the country with 7'1" Solomon Alabi. And in the Elite Eight they could face Kansas State.
The Scarlet Curse
Only one team in the previous six seasons has managed to get out of the first weekend after also losing to Rutgers in the regular season. That would be Villanova as a No. 12 seed in 2008, reaching the Sweet 16. So who has the stink on them this year? That would be Notre Dame and Georgetown. As they would say in Latin, caveat bracketus – brackets beware
Stats
- Which top-six seed ranks the lowest in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, which have predicted the champion four of the last five years? No. 3 New Mexico at 47, right between Richmond and Miami.
- The flip side? Seven-seed BYU ranks 7th. Eight-seed California ranks 14th.
- Syracuse has wins over 10 tournament teams from six different conferences.
- Utah State has only one win over another tournament team, a December home win over BYU.
Historical Footnotes
- Of the five times Michigan State teams have won or shared the Big Ten regular season crown, they have never failed to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- Not counting this year, since coaching Cincinnati when they joined Conference USA in 1995, Bob Huggins has made the NCAA Tournament all 13 times and advanced past the Sweet Sixteen once. Ten times he failed to make it out of the first weekend.
The Quote
Wet Virginia's Da'Sean Butler kept it simple. What advice would he give to teams that have to play a Big East team in the Tournament? "Good luck."
For more college basketball coverage, along with Rutgers and Seton Hall basketball news, follow Mike Vorkunov on Twitter at @Mike_Vorkunov
You may not think they're an offensive team based on their scoring average, but they run an efficient offense, limiting their turnovers and slowing the game while making buckets with an effective FG% of over 50%.
Will they make a deep run? I don't know. The match-up with St. Mary's is an intriguing one, but if they get by that, I like their chances against a Villanova team that has slipped at the end of the season. The Spiders will hang around, and their experience and leadership lets them pull it out a remarkably high percentage of the time.