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Tags8 Democrats safe, 5 Republicans safer
New Jersey's 13 congressmen — 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans — are presently in a tight race with their challengers as the campaign season nears, but can expect to survive to spend another two years in Washington, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll made public Tuesday.
When registered New Jersey voters are asked about voting for their current member of Congress or for a challenger — without identifying either by party — they give incumbents a 30 percent to 28 percent lead, while 31 percent say they do not know how they would vote and 11 percent say they definitely would not vote. This compares a February poll which showed incumbents supported 32 percent to 25 percent, with 27 percent undecided and 17 percent not voting.
"We have seen tightening of the generic incumbent versus challenger results since February," Rutgers Prof. David Redlawsk, the poll's director, said. "Among those making a choice, it is now a statistical dead heat statewide, where incumbents had a seven-point margin six months ago. No question that the environment is more risky than usual for incumbents, though it still seems likely that most, if not all, New Jersey incumbents will survive."
When asked if they will vote for their incumbent congressman, voters who have made up their minds are split nearly evenly between incumbents and challengers.
But, if the question is framed purely partisan terms — will you vote for a Democrat or a Republican this fall? — voters who have made up their minds are favoring Democrats.
It should be noted that New Jersey's 13 congressional districts have been shaped to provide 8 predominantly Democratic districts and 5 predominantly Republican districts.
Rep. John Adler (D-3rd) faces the strongest challenge from Republican Jon Runyan, a former Philadelphia Eagles' star and a Rutgers-Eagleton poll made public Statewide results do not include the 3rd Congressional District, where a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Aug. 10 shows the incumbent leading 31 to 25 percent.
Half those polled were asked about voting for their "current congressman" versus a challenger; half were asked about voting for a generic Republican versus a Democrat. Among these latter voters, 38 percent said they would vote for a Democrat and 29 percent supported a Republican, with 4 percent "other," 25 percent don't know and 4 percent saying they will not vote.
In February, 33 percent favored Democrats, 31 percent Republicans and 7 percent someone else, with 20 percent saying didn't know and 10 percent not voting.
Across all districts held by Democrats, voters support a generic Democrat over a Republican 41 percent to 28 percent. But when party is not named, voters in these same districts appear more ready to toss their incumbents, with 29 percent supporting their "current congressman" and 31 percent supporting "a challenger."
The story is the opposite for Republicans. When party is named, voters in GOP-held districts support an unnamed Democrat 34 percent to 31 percent for the Republican, a -3 margin for Republicans. In February a generic Republican led by 15 points in these same districts. But when asked about supporting their "current congressman" over a challenger, voters support the incumbent 33 percent to 23 percent, a 10 point margin, compared to 7 points in February.
Republicans are hurt when their party is named because voters are very unhappy with Republicans in Congress. While only 37 percent of voters feel favorable towards Congressional Democrats, Republicans are liked by even fewer; only 27 percent hold a "favorable" impression.
"Still when pollsters asked voters about supporting their current congressman or voting for a challenger, Democratic districts suffer the most, reflecting that voters are unhappy and know that it is Democrats who are in charge," Redlawsk said. "Voters in GOP districts overall are more supportive of their ‘current congressman' than those in Democratic-held districts, when party is not named. Anti-incumbency, such as it is, is more directed at Democrats than Republicans."
Independent voters are more supportive of Republicans then Democrats. When asked whether they would vote for an unnamed Democrat or Republican for Congress, independents pick the Republican 25 percent to 14 percent for the Democrat with 8 percent preferring someone else. But 46 percent of independents are undecided, and another 7 percent say they will not vote. This is a slight drop for both parties from the February poll when Republicans led Democrats 30 to 17 percent.
When asked if they would vote for their current congressman or a challenger, independents statewide support a challenger 30 percent to 22 percent, with 34 percent undecided and 15 percent saying they would not vote. Challengers have gained since February when independents were evenly split 28 to 28 percent.
"But, as indicated by the very large undecided and not voting groups, turnout by independents in off-year elections is usually much lower than partisans," Redlawsk said. "So while Republicans and challengers generally may gain from independent voters, the gain will be limited unless turnout by these voters is much higher than usual."
There is some evidence independents may turn out in larger than usual numbers. More independents than Democrats say they are following news about the election somewhat or very closely, 63 percent to 52 percent. Republicans are paying even more attention, with 72 percent claiming they are following election news somewhat or very closely.
Voters' opinions about President Obama and Gov. Chris Christie have some bearing on how voters see the congressional races.
President Obama is seen favorably by 52 percent of New Jersey voters, and unfavorably by 36 percent, compared to 56 to 31 percent in March. Meanwhile, Christie is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent, up from April, when his rating was 33 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable.
Support for Obama appears to have a stronger partisan influence on registered voters, than Christie. Statewide, voters who view Obama favorably say they will vote for a Democrat for Congress, 61 percent to 8 percent for a Republican, while those favorable to Christie support a Republican 55 percent to 14 percent.
In districts held by Democrats, Christie support increases the vote for a challenger over the incumbent. Voters favorable towards Christie say they will vote for a challenger, 39 percent to 20 percent, while those unfavorable towards the governor support the incumbent, 42 percent to 24 percent, a 37-point shift away from the Democratic incumbent based on Christie favorability in Democratic districts.
Obama's influence in Republican districts is not as strong. While support for Obama also leads to support for a challenger, 28 percent to 24 percent, those unfavorable towards Obama support the Republican incumbent, 40 to 19 percent. This is a shift of only 25 points from the incumbent based on favorability towards Obama in GOP districts.
"Voters in Democratic districts are more easily moved by support for Christie than are voters in GOP-held districts by support for Obama; Republicans are just less likely to defect," Redlawsk said.
The poll of 751 registered New Jersey voters was conducted Aug. 5 to 8. The full sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
— TOM HESTER SR., NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM
